US soldier charged over classified information prediction market bets

What happened

A US Army soldier was charged in Manhattan federal court on 23 April 2026 with using classified information about the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro to profit from prediction market bets, the US Department of Justice said.

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, of Fayetteville, North Carolina, allegedly made approximately $409,881 by trading contracts linked to events in Venezuela on Polymarket. Prosecutors say he helped plan and carry out the military operation whose timing and outcome were the subject of his wagers.

The allegations were set out in an indictment unsealed that day, according to the department’s published account. They have not been proved in court, and Van Dyke is presumed innocent unless convicted.

Van Dyke was an active-duty soldier stationed at Fort Bragg in North Carolina. Prosecutors allege that, from around 8 December 2025 until at least 6 January 2026, he worked on Operation Absolute Resolve and had access to classified information that was not publicly available.

He allegedly opened and funded a Polymarket account around 26 December 2025. The department said he placed approximately 13 bets between 27 December 2025 and the evening of 26 January 2026, committing about $33,034 while possessing classified information about the operation.

Those wagers backed outcomes including US forces being in Venezuela, Maduro’s removal from power, a US invasion and President Donald Trump invoking war powers against Venezuela. The contracts specified deadlines of 31 January 2026.

US forces apprehended Maduro and his wife at a Caracas residence before dawn on 3 January, according to the department. After the president publicly announced the operation hours later, Polymarket settled several related contracts as having met their conditions, including those concerning Maduro’s removal and the presence of US forces.

Prosecutors say Van Dyke withdrew most of his alleged proceeds from Polymarket on the day of the operation. He allegedly moved most of the money through a foreign cryptocurrency vault before depositing it in a newly opened online brokerage account.

Reports of unusual trading subsequently appeared in the press and on social media. According to prosecutors, Van Dyke then sought to obscure his connection to the account.

On about 6 January, he allegedly asked Polymarket to delete his account, falsely saying he could no longer access its associated email address. That same day, prosecutors say, he changed the email linked to his cryptocurrency exchange account to one he had created around 14 December 2025 that was not registered in his name.

The background

Prediction markets allow people to trade contracts based on whether specified events will happen. The binary contracts described in this case offered two possible outcomes: an event either met the stated condition or did not.

Polymarket, operated by Blockratize Inc., began offering the Venezuela- and Maduro-related contracts in 2025, the department said. Their date-specific conditions made both the likelihood of an event and its timing relevant to traders.

The indictment centres on information Van Dyke allegedly obtained through his military duties. The department said he had signed nondisclosure agreements requiring him to protect classified or sensitive information relating to military operations.

The alleged misuse is distinct from simply passing confidential documents to an outsider: prosecutors say Van Dyke used his knowledge to guide personal financial decisions. That distinction is relevant to insider-risk programmes, which address how people entrusted with sensitive information might misuse it, as well as how records might leave an organisation.

Other cases illustrate different forms of alleged misuse of trusted access. Insider Threat Roundup previously reported on a former US Army employee charged over alleged classified disclosures, involving accusations that information was shared with a journalist and through social media.

The financial motive alleged here also has parallels with a trader accused of taking his employer’s confidential code and predictive formulas to help establish another trading business. That case concerns corporate trade secrets rather than classified military information; the allegations and legal issues are separate.

What people are saying

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said military personnel receive classified information to perform their duties safely and effectively, not to make personal profits. He said existing federal protections for national security information apply despite the relatively recent expansion of access to prediction markets.

Jay Clayton, the US attorney for the Southern District of New York, characterised the alleged conduct as insider trading. He said prediction markets did not provide an exception to federal laws prohibiting the misuse of confidential or classified information for financial gain.

FBI Director Kash Patel said people with security clearances who exploited their access and knowledge for personal profit would face accountability. FBI Assistant Director in Charge James C. Barnacle Jr. said the bureau would continue investigating security threats involving people entrusted with classified information and military operations.

What happens next

The department said Van Dyke was due to appear before US Magistrate Judge Brian S. Meyers in the Eastern District of North Carolina on 23 April. The case has been assigned to US District Judge Margaret M. Garnett in the Southern District of New York.

He faces three counts under the Commodity Exchange Act, each carrying a maximum prison term of 10 years. He is also charged with one count of wire fraud, carrying a maximum of 20 years, and one count involving an unlawful monetary transaction, carrying a maximum of 10 years.

Those figures are statutory maximums, not a forecast of any sentence. The department said a judge would determine any punishment following a conviction.

The prosecution is being handled jointly by the Manhattan US attorney’s securities and commodities fraud team and its national security and international narcotics unit, with assistance from the Justice Department’s National Security Division.

The announcement did not include a response from Van Dyke or his legal representatives, a plea, or a trial date.